Framework library · Decision making and problem solving
Evidence classification
Evidence classification gives every claim one of four labels. Filed means a company's own filing or a regulator's order, and calculated means arithmetic on filed figures. Reported means trade press, attributed and unverified, and judgement means the analyst's own reading of the evidence. The rule that makes it work is that a reported figure is never upgraded to fact, however often it is repeated.
Use it when
- A board paper, investment case or published analysis carries figures that a decision will rest on.
- Trade press, analyst notes and company filings disagree, and the reader needs to know which figure is which.
- You are reviewing someone else's analysis and want to find the claims that carry the conclusion with the weakest support.
- You publish analysis and want readers to be able to check it.
Avoid it when
- You need to rank risks or options. Classification says how well a claim is supported, not how much it matters. Pair it with a risk register or a weighted decision matrix.
- The work is early brainstorming. Classify when the analysis is about to carry a decision or be published, not while ideas are still forming.
- No filings exist for the subject, as in some private markets. Most claims will then be reported or judgement. Say so at the top instead of labelling every line.
How to run it
List the claims the conclusion rests on
Every figure and factual statement that, if wrong, would change the conclusion. Write each one as it will appear.
Give each claim one class
Filed: a company's own filing or a regulator's order. Calculated: arithmetic on filed figures. Reported: trade press, attributed and unverified. Judgement: your reading of the evidence.
Cite the source and the date checked
Document, page and date for a filed claim; the inputs for a calculated one; the outlet and date for a reported one; the basis for a judgement.
Never upgrade a reported figure
Repetition does not turn a report into a fact. If a filing gives the same figure, cite the filing in its place. If any input to a calculation is reported, the result is reported too.
Find the weak points
A claim the decision rests on that is reported or judgement, with no filed figure behind it, is a weak point. Find the filing, or say plainly that the decision rests on a report or a judgement.
Write what would change each claim
Especially for judgements: the evidence that would reverse them. Publish it with the analysis.
Work through it
Answer the questions below, or load the worked example to see a finished one. The drawing updates as you type. Export the result as a PowerPoint deck, a Word document, an Excel workbook, a PDF or plain text.
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Mistakes to avoid
- Classing a figure as filed because it appeared in a company's press release. A press release is not a filing; check the filing itself.
- Calling a calculation filed. Arithmetic on filed figures is calculated, and the reader should be able to repeat it.
- Letting a judgement pass as fact by stating it without a label. "Take-up will reach 45%" is a judgement and should say so.
- Correcting an error quietly. If a published figure was wrong, the correction belongs on the piece that carried it.
Where it comes from
Blue Prysm's own method, applied to every figure it publishes. Its method page defines the four classes: filed (a company's own filing or a regulator's order), calculated (arithmetic on filed figures), reported (trade press, attributed and unverified) and judgement (Blue Prysm's reading of the evidence), and commits to publishing any correction on the piece that carried the error. Source.
Use it with
Further reading
Work through it with us
The frameworks here are free to use as they stand. If you would rather work through the question behind this one with us, these are the ways an engagement starts.