Framework library · International strategy
Country selection matrix
A country selection matrix ranks candidate markets on the same weighted criteria, so the choice of where to go next is argued from evidence rather than from whichever market the most senior person knows. The useful version scores what a market costs and how hard it is to win alongside how big it is, because the largest market is rarely the most attractive once the cost of getting there is counted.
Use it when
- You have three or more candidate countries and need to choose which to enter first.
- The shortlist has been shaped by where executives have contacts, and you want a common basis for comparison.
- You need to show investors or a board why the largest market is not first on the list.
- You are revisiting the markets you already serve to decide where to grow and where to hold.
Avoid it when
- You have one candidate market. Test it with a business case and a market entry strategy rather than scoring it against nothing.
- The data for most criteria does not exist yet. Size the markets first with TAM, SAM and SOM and measure distance with the CAGE framework. Scores invented in a workshop only look rigorous.
- The decision turns on one factor, such as whether a licence will be granted. Resolve that question directly; a weighted score will bury it.
- The country is chosen and the question is how to enter it. Use market entry modes.
How to run it
Write the offer you would take abroad
Name what you would sell and in what form: "tower acquisitions and build-to-suit for mobile operators", not "towers". Fit and cost to serve only mean something against a defined offer.
Set aside the markets you cannot enter
Where the law bars a foreign company from the licence or ownership you need, score regulatory ease 1 and the tool sets the country aside. There is no point weighing the size of a market you cannot enter.
Agree the weights before scoring
Decide how much size matters against growth, competition, regulation, distance, cost and fit while no country is on the screen. Weights set after the scores are in tend to favour the market someone already wanted.
Score one criterion at a time
Score every country on size, then every country on growth, and so on, from evidence. Scoring a whole row at once invites a halo; scoring down a column keeps the comparison honest. Use the CAGE total for distance.
Read the gaps as well as the order
A lead of a few hundredths is a tie; a clear lead deserves a business case. Check the notes for anything the scores cannot carry, such as an asset that is for sale now.
Test the weights
Move the two largest weights up and down by one. If the leader changes, say so in the recommendation and name the judgement that decides it.
Work through it
Answer the questions below, or load the worked example to see a finished one. The drawing updates as you type. Export the result as a PowerPoint deck, a Word document, an Excel workbook, a PDF or plain text.
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Mistakes to avoid
- Using population or GDP for market size. Score the revenue you could address in your segment.
- Counting one fact twice, for example marking a market down on both distance and cost to serve because it is far away. Write what each criterion measures and keep them apart.
- Treating the top score as the decision. The matrix produces a shortlist and a reason; the business case and time in the market make the decision.
- Ignoring direction. Competition, distance and cost are better when lower. A matrix that adds them as if higher were better rewards the hardest markets.
Where it comes from
No single originator: weighted screening of candidate countries is long-standing practice in international marketing. The version here scores distance and cost to serve alongside size and growth, following Pankaj Ghemawat's criticism in "Distance Still Matters" (Harvard Business Review, September 2001) that country portfolio analysis emphasises potential sales and ignores the costs and risks of doing business in a new market. Source.
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