Framework library · Decision making and problem solving

Cynefin framework

Cynefin sorts situations by how far cause and effect can be known in advance. In clear situations the answer is known, and in complicated ones experts can work it out. In complex situations the answer becomes clear only in hindsight, so you learn by running small experiments. In chaotic ones you act first to stabilise. Confusion is the state of not knowing which applies. Many costly mistakes come from treating a complex problem as if analysis could solve it.

LevelIntermediate
TimeAn hour for one situation; less once the team knows the domains
Who to involveThe people who own the problem and the people closest to it, including at least one person who disagrees with the current approach.
Also calledCynefin model, Cynefin sense-making framework, clear, complicated, complex, chaotic

Use it when

  • A team is about to commission a long analysis or a detailed plan, and you are not sure the problem can be worked out in advance.
  • Something has been tried twice with expert plans and has not worked, and you suspect the approach rather than the people.
  • A crisis has started and you need to decide whether to stabilise first or diagnose first.
  • A programme has parts of very different kinds, and one management method is being applied to all of them.

Avoid it when

  • The question is which of several known options to pick. Use a weighted decision matrix or a decision tree.
  • You need the root cause of a defect in a stable process. That is complicated work; use five whys or a fishbone diagram.
  • You want a maturity score for a function or a company. Cynefin classifies situations, not organisations.

How to run it

  1. Describe one situation

    A specific decision or problem, not a whole business: "moving 600,000 copper voice customers to digital voice by 2028".

  2. Rate the statements for each domain

    Rate how true each statement is of the situation today. The workbench names the domain with the highest average as the closest match.

  3. Check for confusion

    If confusion scores highest, or two domains are close, the team does not agree on what kind of problem this is. Break the situation into parts before going further.

  4. Split the situation into parts

    Most real situations have parts in several domains. List which parts are clear, complicated, complex or chaotic.

  5. Match the approach to each part

    Clear parts get a procedure, and complicated parts get experts and analysis. Complex parts get small, safe-to-fail experiments with signals to watch. Chaotic parts get immediate action to stabilise.

  6. Revisit as the situation moves

    Experiments turn complex parts into complicated or clear ones. Complacency can tip clear parts into chaos.

Work through it

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Mistakes to avoid

  • Treating a complex problem as complicated by commissioning a forecast or a detailed plan where only experiments will show what works.
  • Running experiments with no way to stop them. A safe-to-fail experiment has a signal for scaling it up and a signal for shutting it down.
  • Labelling a whole organisation or industry as complex. The framework classifies situations, and parts of one situation differ.
  • Staying in crisis mode after stability returns. Command and control suits the first hours of a crisis and not the recovery.

Where it comes from

Developed by Dave Snowden from 1999 while at IBM Global Services; set out with Cynthia Kurtz in "The new dynamics of strategy: Sense-making in a complex and complicated world", IBM Systems Journal 42(3), 2003, and for managers in David J. Snowden and Mary E. Boone, "A Leader's Framework for Decision Making", Harvard Business Review, November 2007. Two domain names have since changed: simple (later obvious) is now clear, and disorder is now confusion. Source.

Cynefin is a registered trademark of The Cynefin Company (formerly Cognitive Edge). This page describes the framework independently and in its own words, and is not endorsed by The Cynefin Company.

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Further reading

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