Analysis · The 6G Technology Series

Eight questions about 6G

6G has a calendar with meeting numbers on it: specifications frozen in December 2028, the first American auction in April 2027, the conference that settles the spectrum in late 2027. What it does not yet have is anything a carrier can sell, and the last cycle cost the three national carriers $333 billion before the C-band bill. Read the eight parts to find out:

  1. which dates are already fixed, and how far to trust them
  2. where the spectrum comes from, and what each range costs to use
  3. what 6G adds that 5G-Advanced does not already do
  4. what a cycle costs, and how much cash is left to pay for the next one
  5. what the vendors' open and AI-native bets amount to on paper
  6. what pays before the freeze (five things, all of them 5G)
  7. the twenty dated events that would move the calendar, and the four that matter
  8. what 6G will do, and who is asking to pay for it

Download eBookFirst edition, October 2026 · 90 pages

Part 01The dates that are already fixedWhat has actually been committed to, by whom, and for when?3GPP’s 6G study closes with Release 20 in March 2027, and the first 6G specifications freeze with Release 21 in December 2028, with the code freeze in March 2029. The ITU-R accepts IMT-2030 candidates from February 2027 to February 2029, and WRC-27 meets from 18 October to 12 November 2027. The base rate is not encouraging: in the 5G cycle every release from 15 to 18 moved later, by three to nine months, and only Release 19 held.3GPP · ITU-R WP 5D · ITU WRC-27Part 02Where the spectrum comes fromWhich bands can it run in, and when are they sold?Section 40002 of P.L. 119-21 requires 800 MHz between 1.3 and 10.5 GHz to reach auction by 2034, and it keeps 3.1 to 3.45 and 7.4 to 8.4 GHz out of the pipeline. The first tranche is 160 MHz of upper C-band at 3.98 to 4.14 GHz, Auction 115, with bidding from 27 April 2027. Whether 4.4 to 4.8, 7.125 to 8.4 and 14.8 to 15.35 GHz are identified for mobile is decided at WRC-27 in November 2027. At 7.125 GHz, free-space path loss is 6.2 dB higher than at 3.5 GHz, a factor of four in power before anything else is counted.P.L. 119-21 · FCC 26-46 · ITU Res. 256Part 03What 6G adds, and what 5G-Advanced already doesWhich capabilities need the new standard, and which exist today?IMT-2030’s framework offers 50, 100 and 200 Gbit/s as example peak rates, against the 20 Gbit/s IMT-2020 required. It gives latency of 0.1 to 1 ms against 1 ms, and positioning to 1 to 10 cm, which IMT-2020 never specified. The draft minimum requirements, where public, ask for 36 Gbit/s down in 600 MHz and 1 ms. Four of the six scenarios have 5G-Advanced work items frozen or shipping. Sensing has one narrow Release 20 work item, and the sub-millisecond, centimetre-grade targets have nothing yet.ITU-R M.2160 and M.2410 · 3GPP Rel-18 and Rel-19Part 04What a cycle costsWhat did 5G cost the carriers, and what is left for the next one?AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile’s combined capex ran from $44.0B in 2019 to a peak of $56.7B in 2022 and back to $47.8B in 2025. The C-band auction cost the three of them $78.2B in 2021, before clearing. After capex and dividends, FY2025 left $33.8B across the three. At the 2021 price, the next 160 MHz of upper C-band would cost $46.4B, which is more than a year of that.SEC 10-K filings · FCC auction resultsPart 05The vendors and the architecture betsWhat do AI-native and open mean in commitments rather than slogans?The O-RAN Alliance, founded by five operators in February 2018, counted over 220 participants and over 150 specifications in July 2026, down from over 300 participants in March 2025. The AI-RAN Alliance, founded by eleven companies on 26 February 2024, reached 132 members two years later. Ericsson spent SEK 48.9 billion on R&D in 2025 on sales of SEK 236.7 billion, and expects a flat RAN market in 2026. Nokia spent EUR 4.9 billion on EUR 19.9 billion, with Mobile Networks flat at EUR 7.8 billion. Huawei spent CNY 192.3 billion on CNY 881 billion.O-RAN and AI-RAN Alliances · four vendors’ reportsPart 06What pays before the freezeWhich bets pay on today’s hardware, and which need the standard?Of ten capabilities on the 6G roadmaps, five have a frozen release, a licensed band and a device on sale today, and all five are 5G features earning on existing networks. Two more arrive with the upper C-band, which may not carry service until 31 December 2030. The last three wait for Release 21 and for the spectrum WRC-27 decides, which puts their first revenue in 2030 at the earliest, and the last cycle says later rather than earlier.Parts 1 to 5 of this seriesPart 07What would move the dates, and how you would knowWhich dated signals would move the timeline, and in which direction?Twenty dated events between November 2026 and September 2034 decide whether the 6G timeline holds, and four of them carry most of the risk. Two are 3GPP plenaries, the migration decisions of 7 to 11 December 2026 and the Release 20 freeze in March 2027. The other two are WRC-27 in October 2027 and the Release 21 freeze in December 2028. Each announces its own slip in a document a third party can read, whether a plenary report, a Final Acts footnote or a public notice. The NTIA’s 7 GHz report is due in the same month as the first.Parts 1 to 6 of this seriesPart 08What 6G will do, and who is asking for itWhat does each capability do, what is decided, who wants it, and where is the value?Of the eight capabilities called 6G, one has a retail price, satellite messaging at $10 a month, carrying 0.0002% of one carrier’s traffic. One has a paying customer, a government: sensing, with more than 500 Chinese base stations under a ministry order. The other six have trials at most. 3GPP has decided that 6G stands alone, shares spectrum with 5G and must work without AI; how a 5G phone becomes a 6G one, and what the core looks like, are due in December 2026.3GPP TR 38.914 · NGMN · vendor papers · filings