Direct-to-Device Analysis Series
Seven questions about direct-to-device
Each part takes one question and answers it from FCC licence files and orders, SEC filings and orbital elements. Every figure carries its source and its date, and each part says what it does not cover. They are written to stand alone and to be read in order.
Part 01What is deployed todayWho holds which spectrum, and on what terms?Two satellite operators rent American terrestrial spectrum for direct-to-device: AST on 1,197 records across 654 markets, SpaceX on 173 of 175 in the PCS G block. Nearly all of it is leased, not licensed, AST’s expiring 9 May 2028.FCC licence database · CelesTrak elementsPart 02Why anyone is doing this, and what it costsWhy do it this way, and what does it cost?AST spent $1,064.7M in FY2025 against $70.9M of revenue, which is why it rents its spectrum rather than buying it. The date that bounds the business is 9 May 2028, when every one of its lease authorizations expires.SEC XBRL filingsPart 03How the radios workWhat can the radios physically do?Capacity per user is bounded by a 5–6 MHz service channel rather than by satellite count, and SpaceX is operating while its waiver of the aggregate out-of-band limit of −120 dBW/m²/MHz sits deferred.FCC orders · SatNOGS · orbital elementsPart 04Rent or own: what spectrum costsWhat does it cost to stop being a tenant?SpaceX leases 10 MHz from a carrier today and has agreed to pay $19.6B for 65 MHz of its own, with the second-step closing expected on or about 30 November 2027. Six and a half times the bandwidth, and no landlord.EchoStar 8-K · FCC licence file · auctionsPart 05Where the rules get writtenWho writes the rules, and what have they already decided?The FCC approved both EchoStar transactions on 12 May 2026, with waivers letting SpaceX use the spectrum for terrestrial, space-based or hybrid networks; auction authority runs to 2034 with an 800 MHz pipeline, and Auction 113 cleared at $2.658/MHz-POP with Verizon taking 88.5% of the money, and SpaceX winning two licences.FCC orders & auction results · CRSPart 06Who can afford to playDoes anyone have the money?The big three carriers generated $105.4B of operating cash flow in FY2025 and had $33.8B left after capex and dividends, against roughly $337B of combined long-term debt less cash. AST has about fourteen months of runway at its current burn, and both owned-spectrum incumbents have agreed to be acquired, by Amazon and Rocket Lab.SEC 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filingsPart 07What happens next, and how you would knowCarrier, or supplement?Two dates anchor the whole series: the EchoStar–SpaceX second closing, expected on or about 30 November 2027, and AST’s 1,197 leases expiring 9 May 2028. Between them sits every commercial negotiation in this market.FCC & SEC filings · company releases