Analysis · Direct-to-device · part 1 of 7
What is deployed today
Direct-to-device is discussed as though it were one thing arriving soon. The public record shows something more specific: two companies renting American terrestrial spectrum, two very different fleets in orbit, and a set of incumbents who never appear in the rental records at all.
Sources: FCC licence database (snapshot 13 Sep 2026), FCC authorization orders, CelesTrak orbital elements (epoch 17 Sep 2026). Parsed 17 Sep 2026.
Who has the right to transmit
Filter the FCC’s market licence file to active records and look for satellite operators, and only two of them appear. Almost every record either company holds is a lease rather than a licence: permission written against spectrum that somebody else is licensed to use.
The exception is SpaceX, which holds two market licences granted 26 August 2026 alongside its 173 leases, a distinction part 4 returns to.
1,197
AST active records
175
SpaceX active records
654
AST distinct markets
174
SpaceX economic areas
Filed FCC market licence file, snapshot 13 Sep 2026, filtered to active records and to licensee-type entities
| AST & Science | Space Exploration Holdings (SpaceX) | |
|---|---|---|
| Active records | 1,197 | 175 (173 in the service band) |
| Licence or lease | All leases | 173 of 175 are leases |
| Spectrum | 704–716 / 734–746 MHz (700 MHz lower blocks) | 1910–1915 MHz up / 1990–1995 MHz down (PCS G block) |
| Markets | 654 distinct, mostly cellular market areas | 174 distinct economic areas |
| Granted | 21 Apr 2026, all on one day | 26 Nov 2024, all on one day |
| Expires | 9 May 2028, all on one day | 3 Mar 2026 on every record, while every other G-block holder shows 2036; see part 4 |
| Character of markets | Florida 2 (Glades) · Texas 4 (Briscoe) · Kansas 3 (Jewell) · Sherman-Denison TX | Eugene-Springfield OR · Bangor ME · Twin Falls ID · Gulf of Mexico |
Each block of records was granted on a single day and expires on a single day, which is what an administrative grant looks like rather than a position assembled over time.
Each grant date matches an FCC order to the day. AST’s records trace to the order adopted 21 April 2026, which also covers lease notifications filed with AT&T, Verizon and FirstNet; SpaceX’s trace to the order of 26 November 2024 authorizing supplemental coverage from space in the PCS G block. The orders and the licence file agree with one another, each corroborating the other.
The expiry dates are where the two positions part company. AST’s authorizations all run out on 9 May 2028, which puts a single date under the whole footprint. SpaceX’s 173 leases carry 3 Mar 2026 on every record, while every other holder in the PCS G block shows 2036, a discrepancy the file states without explaining, and one part 4 takes up in detail.
Neither company owns the spectrum its consumer service depends on. Both are tenants, on terms with dates attached.
The absences in the file matter as much as the entries. Globalstar, Iridium and Skylo do not appear anywhere in these records, because they operate in mobile-satellite spectrum they already hold. That is a different regulatory path, and it produces a different balance of power: an incumbent with its own spectrum negotiates from a different position than a newcomer renting a carrier’s.
Both have since agreed to be acquired: Globalstar by Amazon on 13 April 2026, Iridium by Rocket Lab on 28 June 2026. Owned mobile-satellite spectrum turned out to be the scarce asset, which is the subject of part 6.
What is in orbit
Rights on paper are one thing and hardware in orbit is another, and the four fleets that bear on this market are not variations on a single design. Each has settled on an altitude, an inclination and a fleet size, and those three choices together amount to a commercial position rather than merely an engineering one.
| Operator | What the catalogue shows | The bet |
|---|---|---|
| Starlink | 10,702 catalogued objects. Measured shells: 4,380 at 400–480 km / 53° · 3,235 at 480–530 km / 43° · 1,261 at 400–480 km / 97° · 493 at 530–580 km / 70°. 824 objects (7.7%) below 400 km, consistent with the 340–360 km shells in the 2024 order | Mass and proximity |
| AST SpaceMobile | Sampled: BlueBird 01 at ~505 km, BlueBird 08 at ~527 km, both 53°. The FCC order describes authorized altitudes near 515–530 km and 680–690 km, and a constellation of 223 to 243 satellites | Fewer, much larger satellites |
| Lynk | Tower 4 at ~462 km, 97.3°, sun-synchronous and near-polar | Global revisit, not continuous coverage |
| Globalstar | 28 satellites, 1,414–1,830 km, 52° | Incumbent posture: high orbit, owned spectrum, small fleet |
Measured from orbital elementsAST, sampled and authorised
Computed from CelesTrak two-line elements, epoch 17 Sep 2026, and FCC authorisation orders. AST and Lynk figures are samples. The catalogue throttled bulk retrieval.
Calculated Altitudes computed from CelesTrak two-line elements, epoch 17 Sep 2026. AST and Lynk figures are samples. The catalogue source throttled bulk retrieval.
The four bets are not four answers to the same question. Two of them are: mass and proximity, or fewer and much larger satellites, are competing ways of serving the same consumer service, and each commits its operator to a different kind of fleet. The other two answer different questions entirely. A sun-synchronous fleet is built for global revisit rather than continuous coverage, and a small constellation in high orbit, on spectrum it owns, is an incumbent’s posture rather than a challenger’s.
Inclination is a commercial choice before it is an engineering one. A 53° shell concentrates capacity over populated mid-latitudes. A 97° sun-synchronous orbit passes over everywhere and lingers nowhere: fine for messaging, not for a service that must feel like coverage.
The three-way gap
There is authorized capacity, deployed capacity, and capacity with the right payload. The FCC’s order of 26 Nov 2024 authorizes supplemental coverage across up to 7,500 Gen2 satellites; CelesTrak elements at epoch 17 Sep 2026 put 10,702 Starlink objects in the catalogue, of which 824, or 7.7%, sit below 400 km; and the public catalogue does not identify which of them carry the direct-to-cell payload.
7,500
Gen2 satellites authorized
10,702
Starlink objects catalogued
824
Below 400 km (7.7%)
The first two figures differ because authorization is granted ahead of deployment, which is ordinary. The gap between the second and the third is of a different kind: nothing in a public catalogue distinguishes a satellite carrying direct-to-cell hardware from one that does not, and no amount of counting objects will close it from the outside.
Those are three different numbers, and press coverage routinely blurs them.
What this tells you
Regional carrier
the spectrum being used to serve your market from orbit is rented from a national competitor, and AST’s authorizations expire in May 2028. Your question is not whether to partner, but who controls the spectrum underneath the service your subscribers will see.
Vendor or component maker
the bands are now specific and public: 700 MHz lower blocks and the PCS G block for service links. That is a design target, not a rumour.
Investor
spectrum access, its term, and the difference between authorized and deployed are all checkable in public records before anyone’s deck is opened.
Method and limits
How this was built
Downloaded the FCC l_market bulk file (90 MB) from the public licensing directory; kept active records; filtered entity rows to licensee type (the file also contains contact rows, the most common way this count goes wrong); separated leases from licences by call-sign form; read bands from the market-frequency table.
Orbital figures computed from CelesTrak two-line elements, converting mean motion to altitude.
What it does not show
A lease is permission, not proof of operation. Public catalogues do not flag direct-to-cell payloads, and the AST and Lynk orbital figures here are samples rather than fleet-wide measurements, because the catalogue source throttled bulk retrieval. We have not verified the lessors’ identities, so we do not name them.
Data as of: FCC licences 13 Sep 2026 · orbital elements 17 Sep 2026 · Method version 1.0.
Found an error? Tell us. Corrections are published on the piece that carried them.